TL;DRMy observation: Google seems to have written off the “affiliate site” concept – the market is slowly but steadily drying up, and this is just the beginning.
The consequence: The air is getting thinner for generalist websites. What remains are expert sites – projects with a clear niche, genuine expertise, and recognizable people behind them.
The opportunity: Those who understand where things are heading now can position themselves effectively. SEO isn’t dying – but it is becoming more exclusive.
The last few months have made me think.
I’ve been watching this industry for years now – the highs, the lows, the constant algorithm updates. But what’s happening right now feels different. Not like just another update you can wait out. It feels more like a tectonic shift.
Sites that ranked stably for years are disappearing overnight. Colleagues I respect are losing 80% of their traffic. And at the same time, I hear from others that everything is business as usual. How does that fit together?
I’ve spent the last few weeks researching, observing, and analyzing. And I’ve come to an assessment that won’t please everyone: The market as we knew it is drying up. Not for everyone – but for many.
The good news: Those who understand what is happening can adapt. The future isn’t bleak – it’s just different. And it belongs to expert sites.
What I’ve observed in recent months
Let me tell you what led me to this assessment.
It started with the Helpful Content Updates. First in September 2023, then the wave in March 2024. I saw site after site fall – not just the obviously bad ones, but solid projects too. Sites with real content. Sites that followed best practices. And the pattern continued – right up to the December 2025 Core Update, which caused further waves.
At first, I thought: This is a mistake. Google will correct this. But the correction didn’t come. Instead, more updates came. More volatility. More uncertainty. The Semrush Sensor has been showing elevated levels for months – and there is no end in sight.
The patterns that are emerging
After months of observation, I see clear patterns. Anonymous niche sites with no recognizable operator are being systematically devalued. Sites optimized primarily for affiliate revenue are losing massively. Content written obviously “for Google” performs worse. Websites that are thematically too broad are losing out to focused specialists.
And at the same time, sites are winning that have clear thematic focus and genuine depth, projects with recognizable experts behind them, content that has a clear perspective, and brands that are perceived as authorities in their field.
This is no coincidence. This is a directional decision.
I am not alone in this assessment
What reinforces my analysis: Other experienced SEOs see it the exact same way. Charles Floate, for example – someone who has been working in this industry for over a decade and has tested the limits of what is possible – recently issued a very similar warning on LinkedIn.
His thesis: Google updates kill businesses, and 90% of SEOs are next. That may be phrased hyperbolically – but the core hits a nerve that many of us are feeling. Industry experts like Barry Schwartz are also documenting this development – his year-in-review shows: 2025 was a “super volatile year” with dozens of unconfirmed updates.
Alarming signals from the iGaming market
I’ve been working in iGaming SEO for years – online casinos, sports betting, gambling affiliates. This is one of the toughest, most competitive SEO markets of all. This is where the highest CPCs by far are paid, where pros with million-dollar budgets fight for every spot. And that’s exactly why what I’m observing there is so relevant: The classic “affiliate die-off” has already picked up rapid speed here.
When the big players fall
We are talking about the established names in the industry. Websites that employ entire teams of experts. That spend thousands of Euros monthly on off-page SEO alone. That generate – or generated – six-figure affiliate revenues. These sites have professional editorial teams, real expert content, strong backlink profiles, and authority built up over years.
And they are losing. From Google Update to Google Update. Massive losses in visibility.
The actual big players of the iGaming affiliate scene – sites that dominated this market for years – are getting less and less room to breathe.
Who is winning instead
This is where it gets really interesting – and frustrating at the same time. The coveted spots in the SERPs are now being shared by completely different players:
Parasite SEO on High-Authority Domains: Subdomains and directories on news portals, universities, magazines – questionable tactics that I documented in detail in my analysis of Black Hat SEO in the gambling sector. Domains with real authority hosting gambling content. Often provided with real people or at least credible author profiles.
The providers themselves: Casinos and betting providers are increasingly ranking directly – with their own domains, their own brands. Why should Google put an affiliate between the user and the provider if the provider can rank themselves?
Expired Domains and Domain Tricksters: Old domains with existing authority are bought up and repurposed for iGaming content. This works – at least in the short term – shockingly well.
Real brands with faces: Sites backed by recognizable people. Not anonymous affiliate portals, but humans with names, history, and social media presence.
| Who is losing | Who is winning |
|---|---|
| Classic affiliate portals | The providers themselves (Casinos, Bookmakers) |
| Anonymous niche sites | Parasites on High-Authority Domains |
| SEO-optimized content factories | Real brands with recognizable people |
| Established big players without a brand | Expired domains with history |
Why the iGaming market is an early warning system
The iGaming market is relevant to the entire SEO industry for several reasons:
Extreme competition: The fight here is fought with every means available. What works and what doesn’t becomes apparent here faster and more clearly than in “normal” niches.
Highest budgets: If sites with five- to six-figure monthly SEO budgets fall, it’s not due to a lack of resources. It’s due to the system.
YMYL on steroids: Online gambling is a classic Your-Money-Your-Life topic. Google should be particularly strict here. The fact that spam and questionable tactics are successful here of all places shows systemic problems.
The uncomfortable truth
What my observations from iGaming show: The “better” ones don’t automatically win. Winners are real brands (whether reputable or not), the providers themselves (who no longer need affiliates), the manipulators (who have understood the system), and sites with recognizable people behind them.
Classic affiliates – even the large, professional ones with real teams and real budgets – are increasingly among the losers.
My thesis: What is happening in iGaming is a foretaste of what lies ahead for other industries. The effects just show up there faster and more drastically because the competitive pressure is higher.
The end of the affiliate site as we knew it
Let’s call a spade a spade: Google apparently doesn’t like the “affiliate site” concept anymore.
I don’t mean affiliate marketing in general. I mean the classic niche site we all know: Find a keyword, register a domain, create content, build links, collect affiliate commissions. This model is working less and less.
Why Google penalizes affiliate sites
Imagine you are Google. Your goal is to give users the best answer. Now you see thousands of sites all trying to rank for “Best Coffee Machine 2025”. Most have never touched the products. They compile Amazon reviews, add a few stock photos, and hope for commissions.
From Google’s perspective, this is a problem. These sites offer no added value that Amazon couldn’t offer itself. They exist only to stand between the user and the merchant and cash in.
Studies confirm this. According to a long-term analysis by Paul Teitelman, almost 50% of the examined niche sites lost over 90% of their traffic. Among travel publishers, 32% suffered total losses. These aren’t outliers – this is a pattern.
The market is drying up
What does this mean specifically? The affiliate SEO market will shrink. Not overnight, but steadily. The sites that still work will become fewer. Margins are dropping. The effort required for quality that ranks is rising.
This doesn’t just affect website owners. It affects agencies managing such projects. It affects content writers writing for such sites. It affects link builders pushing such sites. An entire value chain is shaking.
Why generalist websites are facing a problem
But it’s not just hitting affiliate sites. It’s hitting an entire category of websites: The generalists.
What I mean by generalist websites
Generalist websites are projects that are broadly positioned thematically. Today they write about coffee machines, tomorrow about vacuum cleaners, the day after about garden tools. They have no clear identity, no recognizable expertise in one area.
These sites functioned for years on the principle: Find keywords with good volume and low competition, create “good enough” content, and collect traffic via volume.
That model is dying right now.
Why Google penalizes generalists
Google is increasingly evaluating entities, not just individual pages. The question is no longer just: “Is this single article good?” The question is: “Is this website an authority on this topic?”
A site that writes about everything is an authority on nothing. The Hub-and-Spoke Model and E-E-A-T reward thematic depth. Those who are positioned broadly and shallowly cannot demonstrate this depth.
Add to that: Generalist sites often have no recognizable expert behind them. Who is the person who masters all these different topics? No one can be an expert on coffee machines AND vacuum cleaners AND garden tools AND financial tips. That isn’t credible – and Google knows it.
The data speaks a clear language
| Website Type | Typical HCU Impact | Future Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Classic Affiliate Site | 50-90% Traffic Loss | High Risk |
| Generalist Website | 30-70% Traffic Loss | Increasingly Difficult |
| Focused Expert Site | Often stable or growing | Positive Outlook |
| Established Brand with Authority | Mostly stable | Remains Strong |
The future belongs to expert sites
Now for the good news. Because as bleak as the situation looks for some sites – for true expert projects, the situation has never been better.
What defines an expert website
Let me define what I mean by “expert site”:
Thematic Focus: The site covers a clearly defined subject area and goes deep there. Not “everything about household appliances”, but “everything about espresso machines” – or even narrower.
Recognizable Expertise: Behind the site stands a person or a team with verifiable competence. Not anonymous authors, but humans with faces, history, and credentials.
Real Experience: The content is based on actual experience. Products were really tested. Processes were really gone through. You can tell from the content.
Own Perspective: The site offers not just compiled information, but own assessments, opinions, and recommendations – based on expertise.
Why expert sites win
Google is evolving in a direction that favors such sites. The Google Leak confirmed what many suspected: Entities, authority, and trust play a central role. The Quality Rater Guidelines also make it clear what Google looks for.
When Google has to decide whether to rank an anonymous generalist site or a focused expert site – who wins? The answer is obvious.
The same applies to AI Overviews and LLM-based search. These systems need trustworthy sources they can cite. They prefer content from humans with demonstrable expertise. An anonymous generalist site offers them nothing they can safely use. The future in the age of AI browsers belongs to those who are recognizable and citable as a source.
Examples of successful expert positioning
The sites I see surviving and growing in my circle all have one thing in common: They have a clear answer to the question “What does this site stand for?”
Not: “We write about tech.”
But: “We are the espresso nerds who test every machine ourselves.”
Not: “We create travel content.”
But: “We are experts for hiking trips in the Alps.”
This focus makes them the obvious choice for Google – and for users.
Brand building: The underestimated survival strategy
My observations – especially from the iGaming sector – show me one thing very clearly: Brand building is no longer a nice-to-have. It is a survival strategy.
Why? Look at who survives in the toughest markets: Real brands. Sites with recognizable people behind them. Projects that aren’t just “SEO-optimized” but have a real identity.
What distinguishes a brand from a “site”:
A brand has a name that people recognize and search for. It has a face – a person or a team that is visible. It has a story, a mission, a reason to exist beyond “we want to rank”. And it has touchpoints outside of Google: Social Media, Newsletter, Community, maybe a Podcast or YouTube channel.
Why Google prefers brands:
It’s no secret that Google prefers established brands. This isn’t due to unfairness – it’s due to trust. A brand is verifiable. It has a history. It has mentions on the web. It has people standing for it. For Google, a brand is a quality signal that is hard to fake.
In contrast: Anyone can set up an anonymous niche site. Fill it with AI content. Push it with bought links. For Google, the risk of trusting such sites is higher.
Brand building for SEOs – concrete steps:
- Show your face. Author pages with real photos, real bios, real social profiles.
- Build presence outside of Google: LinkedIn, Twitter/X, industry forums, guest posts with your name.
- Get mentioned: Give interviews, speak at conferences, appear on podcasts.
- Develop a recognizable perspective: What do you stand for? What is your opinion? A brand without an opinion is not a brand.
- Think long-term: Brand building is not a sprint. It is an investment that pays off over years.
What this means for us SEOs: All-rounders under pressure
Interestingly, what applies to websites also applies to us SEOs as a profession. Here too, I see a development that won’t please everyone.
The SEO All-rounder: A discontinued model?
For a long time, you could make a good living as an SEO all-rounder. A bit of technical SEO here, some content optimization there, a few links there. You didn’t have to be a specialist – you just had to master the basics and be diligent.
These times are ending right now. The SEO job market shows it clearly: Job listings plummeted by 37% in 2024. But not evenly. Senior positions with clear specialization rose by 3%. Entry-level remained stable. The middle – the all-rounders – is losing.
Why is this happening?
The reasons are understandable. AI tools are taking over routine tasks. ChatGPT can write a meta title. Screaming Frog finds technical errors automatically. The tasks that used to keep an SEO all-rounder busy are now done by a tool in seconds.
What remains are the difficult decisions. The strategy. The interpretation of data. Understanding the interplay of SEO, AIO, GEO and LLMO. For this, you don’t need all-rounders – you need specialists.
The polarization of the industry
I see a clear polarization coming:
On one side: Highly specialized SEO experts with deep knowledge in specific areas. The technical SEO specialist. The E-commerce SEO expert. The Local SEO pro. These are becoming more valuable and better paid.
On the other side: Very cheap resources for routine tasks, often supported by AI. Creating content briefs, conducting basic audits, generating reports – this is becoming a commodity.
In between: The solid all-rounder with broad surface-level knowledge will have a hard time. Not because they are bad. But because their competencies can either be automated or delivered better by true specialists.
The parallel is no coincidence
Do you see the parallel? Generalist websites lose against expert sites. SEO all-rounders lose against specialists. The pattern is the same: Broad half-knowledge is devalued. Deep expertise becomes more valuable.
| Level | What loses | What wins |
|---|---|---|
| Websites | Generalist sites without a clear niche | Expert sites with thematic depth |
| SEO Professions | All-rounders with broad basic knowledge | Specialists with deep expertise |
| Content | “Good enough” content for keywords | Unique content from experts |
What you should specifically do now
For your websites:
Audit each of your projects: Does it have a clear thematic focus? Is there recognizable expertise behind it? Or is it a generalist project that does a little bit of everything? If the latter: Seriously consider whether you should focus or let it phase out.
For you as an SEO:
Choose a specialization. Not “I do SEO”, but “I am an expert in technical SEO for large e-commerce shops” or “I specialize in content strategy for B2B SaaS”. The niche can evolve, but you need a starting point.
For both:
Diversify your traffic sources. If more than 60% comes organically from Google, that is a risk. Newsletter, YouTube, LinkedIn, Podcast – every channel that isn’t Google is insurance. And use annotations in Google Search Console to document changes and recognize patterns.
| Priority | For Websites | For you as an SEO |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Define clear niche | Choose specialization |
| 2 | Show recognizable experts | Build personal brand |
| 3 | Start brand building: Name, Face, Story | Visibility outside client projects |
| 4 | Thematic depth instead of breadth | Go deep in one area |
| 5 | Diversify traffic | Multiple income streams |
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Is SEO dead?
No. SEO is changing, but it is not dying. People will continue to search – on Google, on ChatGPT, on YouTube. As long as there is search, there is optimization potential. What is dying are certain types of websites and certain ways of doing SEO: the anonymous generalist projects, the broad surface-level knowledge. What is growing are focused expert sites and specialized SEO know-how.
Can I still be successful with a generalist website?
Increasingly difficult. If your website writes about everything and nothing, you are competing with sites that have specialized in individual topics – and these are favored by Google. The recommendation: Focus. Choose the topic where you have the most expertise and go deep there. Let the rest phase out or outsource it.
Do I really have to specialize as an SEO?
You don’t have to – but it will help you. SEO all-rounders will still be needed, especially in smaller companies looking for a “full-service SEO”. But competition is getting tougher, margins are dropping. Specialization is the path to better pay and more stable demand. The question is not if, but in what.
What do the iGaming observations mean for other industries?
The iGaming market is a stress test for Google’s algorithm. If quality sites lose there despite the highest budgets and most professional work, while spam tactics and real brands win, this shows systemic patterns. These patterns will sooner or later also become noticeable in other industries – just with a time lag and less drastically.
How important is brand building really?
From my point of view: crucial. My observations show that real brands survive even in the toughest markets – while even large, well-optimized sites without brand identity fall. A brand doesn’t protect you from every update. But it makes you more resilient because it is hard to fake. Google can distinguish a good SEO site from a real brand – and prefers the latter.
What do I do if my site is affected by the HCU?
Honest answer: Full recoveries are rare. Check first: Is your site a generalist site without clear focus? Is recognizable expertise missing? If so, that is likely the reason. Seriously consider whether a fresh start with clear positioning makes more sense than endless optimization on the existing project.
Conclusion: The cleanup has begun
What we are experiencing right now is a cleanup. On several levels simultaneously.
For websites: Affiliate sites and generalist projects are dying out. What remains are expert sites with clear focus, genuine expertise, recognizable people behind them – and a real brand.
For SEOs: All-rounders with broad basic knowledge are being replaced by AI and specialists. What remains are either very cheap commodity services or high-quality specialist work with a real profile.
In the market: My observations from the iGaming sector – one of the toughest SEO markets of all – show that even million-dollar budgets and expert teams are no longer a guarantee. The winners are real brands, the providers themselves, and those who know how to manipulate the system. The classic affiliates, even the big players, are losing.
The consequence is clear: Brand building is no longer an option – it is a survival strategy. In a world where Google wants to distinguish between real experts and well-optimized sites, a real brand is your strongest asset.
Charles Floate and others warn that 90% of SEOs are next. I believe that number is exaggerated – but the direction is correct. Many will have to adapt. Some will fail. But those who understand where things are heading have better chances than ever before.
Imagine looking back at this moment in two years. The course is being set now. The question is not whether change is coming. The question is whether you will be standing on the right side.
